EV Calculator
Calculate expected value, Kelly stake, and projected profit for any bet.
%
How EV Is Calculated
Expected Value (EV) measures how profitable a bet is over the long run. A positive EV ("+EV") bet means you have a mathematical edge over the sportsbook.
EV% = (true_prob x decimal_odds) - 1
// Positive = profitable, Negative = losing bet
// Positive = profitable, Negative = losing bet
Where:
- True probability - the real chance the outcome happens, stripped of the sportsbook's margin (vig). TrueVig derives this from Pinnacle's no-vig line.
- Decimal odds - your American odds converted to decimal format. Example: +150 = 2.50, -200 = 1.50.
Kelly% = (b x p - q) / b
// b = decimal odds - 1, p = true prob, q = 1 - p
// Quarter Kelly = Kelly% / 4 (recommended)
// b = decimal odds - 1, p = true prob, q = 1 - p
// Quarter Kelly = Kelly% / 4 (recommended)
The Kelly Criterion tells you the mathematically optimal bet size to maximize bankroll growth. We recommend quarter Kelly - betting 25% of the full Kelly amount - to reduce variance while still capturing the edge.
- EV% above 5% - strong edge, confident bet
- EV% between 2% and 5% - moderate edge, worth taking
- EV% below 2% - thin edge, proceed with caution
- Negative EV% - no edge, do not bet
Find +EV Bets Automatically
TrueVig scans live odds across 8+ sportsbooks to surface +EV opportunities in real time - no manual math required.
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